Episode 0 The Clone Wars : Multiplicity of SPEED!

There is a lot of talk about speed this year, it’s a category you can wait on, and wait on and wait on. Although Carl Crawford had an off year two years ago, he bounced back to be, well, Carl Crawford. So why has Carl Crawford been slipping a bit on the radars of pundits, gurus, websites, blogs, articles, draft guides and the collective consciousness of the entire fantasy world. Once upon a time, Crawford was a universal 'value pick' at the end of the first round, and he definitely returned back to form doing the ‘Carl Crawford thing' last year. So why on earth would Carl Crawford be falling in draft positions? After all. Carl Crawford is almost a fully fleshed out proto-type, android like base stealing machine. He is the Alpha Male of base stealing, the Captain Crook of MLB.




I don’t know if Dr. Wiley, has stolen a sample of his DNA but there seem to be a lot of Carl Crawford ‘clones’ running around the majors these days. It reminds me a bit of the movie Multiplicity with Micheal Keaton, where they clone his character and each copy becomes much dumber.




There are a whole list of guys, much more recent additions to the majors, that do the “Carl Crawford thing” but they don’t do nearly as well. Today we have Michael Bourn, Jacoby Ellsbury, Nyger Morgan, Andrew McCutchen, Brent Gardener, Emilio Bonifocio, Julio Burbon, Rajai Davis, Elvis Andrus, Dexter Fowler, Alicidies Escobar and Scott Podsednick seems like he’ as old as Mum-Ra but is 33 years of age and can still probably steal some bags.



Probably none of these guys are going to do what Carl Crawford does, and in many ways each and every one of them is a china town version of dodgy craftsmanship.



If Crawford slips to the middle of the second round and you have a flexible draft strategy, by all means grab him. Unless of course your draft strategy unless of course your hell bent on power like a Burmese dictator.







Lets say you were able to get your hands on a Zack Greinke with the 20th overall pick and you needed to pass on Mr. Crawford, don’t worry you can get a cheaper version much later. It's quite alright. There’s plenty of them out there. Now, earlier I listed a whole mess of them earlier.



So which ones are worth taking a draft pick on ?



Michael Borne – Michael Borne could be the fastest man in baseball and he’s prone to possibly steal a hell of a lot. He batted an eviscerating .229 the year before last and is probably about as healthy for your team as E-coli. People know he could bat in the .270 range and every one was left with a nasty case of the “WHAT IFs?!”. WHAT IF he were to bat like .280, how many bases would be steal then. If you to have used yahoos computerized player ranker at certain paints in the season to look at the status of agent Borne, it would have told you we was one of the TOP 25 valuable player in fantasy, period. That big onerous cloud still follows him around though, considering he’s only one season removed from a .229 batting average, so proceed with caution, then again drafters might have that very thing on their minds, making him slip down about a full round past his fair market value.



Andrew McCutchen – Fret not that McCutchen has not hit more than 14 home runs in a full minor league season, if your looking for a baby stat line that looks just like the well establish Crawford. McCutchen’s batting average in the minors is a solid .286 which matches the .286 he hit during his major league test drive. He young, 23 young, and going to have a break out season any way now, and for now a nice ceiling for him is .285 18 HR / 35 SB. Baby Crawford indeed.



Rajai Davis – Journeyman Davis got his shot last year and shattered any conservative expectations for him. He stole over 30 bases in a fraction of a season and hit a solid .300 for a good part of the second half of the year. Will he hit three hundred ? Probably not, but it wont be too far, and since a full extrapolation to say 70 bases would be wide eyed and irresponsible, ill make a more conservative call at 45.



Of course with all this talk about cloning and deteriorating quality with each carbon copy, your best bet is to try to snag some value in the real McCoy.

Shea Stadium Souveniers : GOING OUT OF BUSINESS SALE!

Ah........ How about dem' Mets. Those perennial under achievers who famously tease their fans with a blockbuster budget and produce an ending to their season reminiscent of a climax to Jean Clean Van Damme "straight to DVD" release. The words "disappointment" and "New York Mets" are so ubiquitous, so redundant throughout the New York press circus that an editor would from one the the Big Apple papers would send an assignment straight back to the draft board if a sports writer would so boldly paired the two words within even a paragraph apart from each other.



Being in a fantasy draft in the New York market is unlike being in a fantasy draft in any other market. Fandom runs deep, generations deep and Met and Yankee players get snagged by fantasy geeks, on average, almost a full round too early. And although other cities might have this issue, the New York market is particularly notorious for allow team colors to cloud a drafter's judgement. Last year someone in my league drafted almost the entire Mets pitching roster. Needless to say he came in last. Dead last.

Last year was particularly painful for Mets fans, with a combination of a Madoff swindling and a myriad of injuries. Most fans would rather watch a DVD of the 1986 World Series than tune in. Fortunately for fantasy players it doesn't matter if said players' team makes the play offs. All that matters a players individual stat line. As fantasy fanatics we can be very opportunistic about the Mets struggles and like those crafty real estate speculators taking full advantage of this crash, you can come in with the speed of a concord and make lemonade of the situation.

The problem is that no one knows if this is the bottom of the housing market or not and no one really knows if this is the end of the Mets' troubles or just the beginning.


Plenty of Value -

Wright, Beltran, Reyes, and Santana are all bonafide baseball superstars who at one point or another in the last four years have ALL worn the "fantasy first rounder" tag with pride. Some of the fallen stars in question are only a year removed from their first round glory.




Lets assess the risk from high risk / high reward through reasonable risk and finally low risk steady return.

High Risk High Reward –

Carlos Beltran in the last few years has been a nice sneaky pick in the top rounds to get 25/25/100/100 and bat on the fringe of .300 while doing it. Now, since the Mets need to sell tickets to corporate big wigs in sky boxes the official word is that Beltran just needs to ‘clean up’ his knee, a knee that is no stranger to the operating table.

Beltran is expected back as ‘no earlier than late April.’ You might as well tell Mets fans to act as if the slugger is not coming back this season. Mets fans root cautiously with a heavy heart are probably going to avoid him for as long a possible. In some mocks he sits there like the last kid picked in a pick up game as late as the 13th round begging “pick me pick me!”

If the most optimistic hopes are indeed correct, he could play close to a full season. Some are saying he isn’t going to try to steal due to the knee operations. But in the half season he did play last year, he did hit ten home runs and steal ten bases. Project that over a full season of play and you have a 20/20 guy with a 300 batting average.

You just can’t beat that in the middle teen rounds and sometimes in the late teen rounds. Imagine trading your #2 outfielder after and after Beltran hits his stride in June and getting a #2 starter in return. Depending on the degree of difficultly of your league, this might prove easier said than done but there a pretty sweet possibility here.

In the 16th round would you rather have Alex Rios or a Carlos Beltran that’s out for a month. Or a sliding Johnny Damon. Beltran or a average decimating Dan Uggla. Beltran or the ever lasting under achiever Adrian Beltre. It’s a very high risk pick but the value the risk is priced in.

Moderate Risk –

Jose Reyes, who built his fantasy reputation on the expectation that he should give you at least 50 steals in the bank. But the curse of the old Shea’ seems to be wreaking havoc on the Mets. Always the first rounder, Reyes’ value should take a hit since the Hamstring problem makes it hard to count on stolen bases. Although you should monitor how long he will be out, if he slips any later than the 5th round start throwing him into your player cue. Considering the dearth of talent at short stop this year, having ‘Jose Jose Jose’ filling the gap in that position could bless you with a huge fantasy windfall.

Jose Reyes, if healthy, should still get you 300.+/15/100/100/25


Moderate Risk –

S.A.N.T.A.N.A

There has been a lot of coverage of Johan Santana’s shoulder problems. Rumors have been flying around the internet that the management office in Minnesota knew that something was wrong with his shoulder before the sent him out to market.

That’s the dark side of Johan, however the upside is very real looking to smack the naysayers in the face. Johan’s numbers in 2009 are still pretty solid. Stellar if you believe that he put up a low 3 ERA battling a shoulder problem. Does that mean that a recovered Johan is capable if pitching a full season?

As the magic 8 ball once said “the answer is uncertain.” But Johan is a competitor, and he is a winner in the big leagues. If it had not been for the emergence of a new breed of super pitcher (Greinke, Lincicum) who are sporting mid two ERAs Johan’s name would still be amongst baseballs best.

Now with a strong spring it brings his name out of the mid sixth round and you would probably have to spring for him in the 5th. I go for him any later than the middle of the 5th round.

Remember that the new stadium is VERY pitcher friendly, a deliberate move by the Mets to save them expenses on pitching costs.


Low Risk

David Wright was once a first rounder and out of the crop of fallen angels David Wright remains the closest to that upper tier. The “power outage” at Shea remains a little bit discouraging, but the reason that experts were penciling in Wright as a first rounder in the 2009 season were two fold. Fantasy analysts after all did know that the new stadium was going to be a “pitchers park.”

A) They didn’t know exactly how bad the 'Citi Field effect' was going to be.

B) The believed that Wright, much like Soriano in his first year with the Nats, would be able to display power DESPITE the new field.

No one however expected it to be as low as ten home runs.




Wright however remained solid in every other statistical category and I can’t buy the projections for 15 homers he’s just too good.

Think of the Mets as that video store in your neighborhood video store with the “lost our lease” sign on it where you can get your 3 favorite movies for under $10 in total.

Its time to start browsing the bargain bin.



-Johnny Utah

Hidden Treasure : Pirate Booty

Outfielders AHOY! Smitty get me a bucket of those Pittsburg Pirate buffalo wings wing, (those who have been to the stadium know what I’m talking about) or ye be lay tonight with a the 10,000 league below the sea surface.




Myself and Jones! were having a discussion the other night about the Pirates out field. Now, Garrett Jones is someone I cautiously recommend in the later rounds of the draft he was an amazing value off of the waiver wire last year. And my view of him is only slated to go up if he keeps up the spring training shenanigans like a three run homer yesterday off of C.C. Hit fit every criteria of a “flash-in-the-pan-half-season-fluke” but some how I believe in the kid err … middle aged man. Now I know Jones! doesn’t like him. He didn’t buy it last year and he doesn’t feel he is going to come anywhere near his torrid pace in either homers or stolen basses. And to be honest searching his minor league record reveals traces of power, (30 home runs in AA in 2004 in only 450 at bats. ) So there’s value there for sure.


Lastings Millidge - Then there’s Willie Mays of the the Auto Tune era who had a record label and a rap sheet before he had a major league hit. If Lastings Milledge reaches his ceiling he could be a re-donk-ulously cheap Carl Crawford, but he carries with him a burdensome history of disrespecting coaches and doing his best Easy E impression.



He seems to have landed in a more stable and supportive environment in Pittsburg. Finally, batting around the .300 that he had consistently displayed through his promising minor league career. The stigma associated with Lastings is, well, lasting and its doing to take a few YEARS of solid production to wash out that bad taste.



I'm guessing Baby David doesn't like taste of lasting after taste of Milledge Cola.




So for now look to snag him very late, we talking second to last round of the draft late. This is the year the boy either grows up or fades out of fantasy relevance. Andrew McCutchen – In this rare case his minor league total BA matches his major league BA at .286. Jones! is convinced this is a break out year for the kid and some how he is going have 20/30 potential. I like the value going on here but I don’t see where the power is going to come from. Just another guy in the mold of Rajai Davis, Dexter Fowler, and Lastings Milledge. Speedy guys you can steal late who have the very real capability to hit for average. Jones! is way higher on McCucthen than myself. CASTAWAYS – Former Pirate Outfielders. (I Guess they were tired of life of the High Seas.)




Nate McLouth - Jones! was totally soured by this guy last year as he traded him before his decline, but he was a heady pick for 25/25 going into last season. Yes his minor league numbers do not scream ‘home run king’ but they do indicate speed and a .291 average. If he clears even 20 homers then he's pretty much a shoe in for the 20/30 pretty nice for a 4th outfielder most captains have jettisoned over board.



Nyger Morgan - Our final mutinous traitor is Nyger Morgan. He kinda gets lost in the shuffle with all the new speedsters emerging and with stolen bases the "I'll-just-wait-till-the-late-teens" category de jour. Nyger Morgan did not skip a beat in Washington and there no reason to think he WONT give you the speedy production you expect in him.

-Johnny Utah

Half Year Hitting Sensations : Sorting Them Out .. A How To

Every year in fantasy sports, especially baseball, you have breakout stars who no one expects to do exceptionally well, but somehow turn the fantasy world on its head. When a hitter for instance gets a call up, and smacks 20 homeruns in about half a season of play and sometimes less we the brotherhood of fantasy baseball are all ears. When Ryan Howard did it in 2005, it earned him the Rookie of the Year award . People paid attention, especially those of us addicted to the game. The questions started popping up. Can he do it again ? Who is this hefty kid ? Are the Phils going to bench Big Bad Jim Thome for this up and coming un proven knockout kid. When Thome was dealt to the White Sox the following season, we got our answer. Those of us who craftily snagged the unproven commodity in fifth or sixth round let out an evil Mr. Burns from the Simpsons like EGGGCEELENT! And we all know what happened in Ryan Howard’s “breakout” season, a stat line that lived up and surpassed even the most optimistic speculators. And the pessimists with egg on their face.



Those same owners, often wide eyed extrapolators, much like myself, once saw something in a young Chris Duncan. A journey man in the Cardinals farm system finally got the call up and smacked 22 dingers in what amounted to the equivalent of half a season of at bats. A hitter that could be drafter in the 18th round is unlikely to pay fantasy dividends and sure enough Chris Duncan was a tremendous disappointment the following season, if lets say you were expecting him to sky rocket into 40+ homer territory.







So what separates the two, in the comparison between Duncan and Howard the answer is pretty obvious. Duncan was a minor league journeyman who had a batting average under .260 during his semi-pro career and reached a ceiling of 21 home runs in all of those seasons. Howard was highly touted as a top prospect who during one season in Reading, PA hit 37 home runs in about 350 at bats. Receiving the cover of Beckett Monthly and winning the rookie of the year award as convincingly as he did are usually indications of good things to come.



I use these two examples as extremes, but every year a fantasy marvel comes out of West Bumble USA, to smack the cover off the ball. There are no absolutes and you are probably going to get it wrong every now and again but here are some things to look for to spot the next Josh Hamilton and not the next Chris Shelton.


Hype –





Yes, plenty of prospects that are often over-hyped but if a rookie sensations half season co-correlates with the write up on his Bowman rookie that claimed “his swing is strikingly similar to Willie Mays” Keep in mind even in a rookie is hyped AND has a good fractional campaign, they are still an unproven commodity and can be drafted at a significant discount. (Think Howard, Hamilton, and Longoria the year directly after they were called up.)

Spring Training Numbers –

Most fantasy experts don’t place too much stock in a spring training numbers. There are a few exceptions though, if a pitcher is coming off of an injury it is very encouraging to see those a low era and a healthy command of that pitchers go to pitch. In a hitters case a question mark might move up a couple of priority spots on your drafts list if he something special like, oh, I don’ know lets say lead the majors in home runs during spring training. (Ryan Howard led the majors in homers the year before his break out year.


Injury –

This one can go either way. Perhaps a hot prospect has finally gotten over come an injury that has hampered them during their career. A player that has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that they have a natural gift. Take for instance Alex Gordon, deep down inside some where is a born winner who should be making the major market team wring their fingers in anticipation for a his contract year. Year after year though injury and the residual aches and pains that remain long after the club house doctor has cleared your to play have effectively put the kibosh on his major league hopes. A player like that can easily live up to his potential if can get fully healthy.

In a time period marked by prolonged recession in the U.S. economy and a parallel recession in Fantasy depth at third base, Alex Gordon might be the recession special you might want to look at.






Johnny Gomes on the other hand was a call up who showed his power during his break out year through spring training and into April of the following season. It is now well known that a shoulder problem derailed the rest of that season and every multiple attempts at a come back. Be Careful! Major League Baseball managers are notorious for keeping injuries top secret and lying to the media about the overall health of their players. Sometimes a local newspaper will have the inside scoop on players injuries so check the websites of local players and for cases where you suspect a surreptitious injury ‘cover up’ check the MLB rumor sites.
Here

Minor League Numbers – This one is a no brainier. If someone is having a major break out season, go back and see if that hitter has a minor league track record to match. There are right now plenty of minor league hitters who post up at least semi impressive numbers on the Bull Durham circuit.

This Years Question Marks

Nelson Cruz – This Texas slugger has shown tremendous promise in the minor league system and will probably still a number of question marks surrounding him. He hits much better in Arlington than elsewhere (.286 BA at home) He hit 33 home runs in just over 450 Abs and has a track record of torrential power in the minor leagues. He is very for real and this is the last year you will be able to get any type of discount on him. His minor league average indicates that he’s capable of way more than the BA of .260 he sported lat year.

Ben Zobrist – He’s probably on everyone’s radar this year after that incredible break into the majors campaign last year. Keep in mind he hit more home runs last year than he did in his entire minor league career. A red flag indicating rookie season fluke. Zobrist will will be paid for dearly due to his position scarcity. His steal potential is probably not for real considering that the only time he stole as many bases as he did in his major league season is nearly four years ago in the minor leagues. If you look at the guys pre/post all star split his power number came down to earth in the second half. What you can count on Zobrist for is sporting a squeaky clean batting average, his career average in the minors is well above three hundred, but in fantasy baseball you aren’t drafting any one for just their batting average unless its Joe Mauer. You certain o over pay for Zobrist for avoid him.



Garrett Jones – In terms of fantasy baseball I feel in love with Garrett Jones last year, his half season was incredible allowing me to off load the scorching Derrek Lee for value. I am the type of sucker to go after Garrett Jones again even though a lot of the indicators of pointing to a fluke are present. He is one of those life long journey men in the minor leagues, who according to baseball wise man logic should had been called to the big show a long time ago if he had an ounce of major league worth. Don’t be fooled by his stat line, he is an atrocious hitter for averaging who once hit a dreadful .202 in a full minor league season. (The following year he sported a not much better .220 BA) The good news with Jones is that he did what he did for slightly less than half a season, which means most fantasy novices didn’t take note of him. His power is very real, but don’t expect another .290 campaign. If you can get him at the tail end of the draft do it, If it comes down to your third closer or Jones, your third string closer is probably more of a guarantee.

Don’t Stretch, I probably will this year cause, shucks, I like the kid but take this as a warning. [Update 3/11, Three run homer off of Sabathia, keep your eye on the kid during spring training.]

Chris Coghlan – There wasn’t anything ridiculously eye popping about Chris Coglhan’s statline at the end of the season last year, and we have seen people in recent years win the rookie of the year much more convincingly. Nevertheless the wasn’t rushed through the minors too fast nor did he flounder there on a quest to find himself. His .328 average was quite impressive and steaks of play indicate that there might be more than meets the eye as far as power is concerned. He might be a late round pick but he’s no gamble, Coghlan is a solid start or fill in at a very scarce position. He’s in Florida which is an exiting young team with a robust farm system. He isn’t going to win you your league, but he’ a nice answer to the often asked question. “What do I do for second base?” Just avoid him if your league is willing to pay for that “rookie of the year

Introducing Johnny and Jones!

Hey, You! John Q fantasy baseball, the guy in two leagues who makes up 6:24 am to see if that prospect has cleared waivers. You! The guy who uses the diagnostic tools of at least two different sites to check the trend patterns of a pitcher. This is the blogging home of two really big fantasy baseball geeks. We would like to think our league is up there with the famous Tout Wars. My name is Johnny Utah and my partner in crime is called Jones! Our league is HIGHLY competitive. We are constantly hearing things like “Man Oh Man That league was just TOO competitive!” or “Or Y’ALL some freakin geeks!” or “I tried to get Andrew Bailey but it was too late some smiley waiver wire hound grabbed him three and a half weeks before he even HAD the closer job.” I, Johnny Utah, have won the league title once in the summer of 06 I believe it was and Jones! Has won it two years in row. Two years ago with an absolutely disgustingly dominant statistics. He is kinda like the Obi Won my young Skywalker and we battle constantly.

So we figured since we spend so much weekly talking about fantasy in general, why not do something like a blog. So what makes us qualified to write a “blog” on this stuff. Well first off we are super fans, spend much more time waiver watching than your average Joe and second our collective consensus is often far more accurate some of the pundits than lets say a big bad corporate owned by a black and white mouse. At times we will agree with the pundits and will give them their due respect, when warranted of course. But that big ominous mouse represents the death star to our rebellious team of nothing to lose, caution to the wind brand of prognostication. But stay tuned, your fantasy team will benefit. We promise and at the very least we hope you will be entertained.

With pitchers and catchers already reported no time like the present to get ready for some basseeeeebbbaaallllll!

- Johnny Utah and Jones!