Those same owners, often wide eyed extrapolators, much like myself, once saw something in a young Chris Duncan. A journey man in the Cardinals farm system finally got the call up and smacked 22 dingers in what amounted to the equivalent of half a season of at bats. A hitter that could be drafter in the 18th round is unlikely to pay fantasy dividends and sure enough Chris Duncan was a tremendous disappointment the following season, if lets say you were expecting him to sky rocket into 40+ homer territory.
So what separates the two, in the comparison between Duncan and Howard the answer is pretty obvious. Duncan was a minor league journeyman who had a batting average under .260 during his semi-pro career and reached a ceiling of 21 home runs in all of those seasons. Howard was highly touted as a top prospect who during one season in Reading, PA hit 37 home runs in about 350 at bats. Receiving the cover of Beckett Monthly and winning the rookie of the year award as convincingly as he did are usually indications of good things to come.
I use these two examples as extremes, but every year a fantasy marvel comes out of West Bumble USA, to smack the cover off the ball. There are no absolutes and you are probably going to get it wrong every now and again but here are some things to look for to spot the next Josh Hamilton and not the next Chris Shelton.
Hype –
Yes, plenty of prospects that are often over-hyped but if a rookie sensations half season co-correlates with the write up on his Bowman rookie that claimed “his swing is strikingly similar to Willie Mays” Keep in mind even in a rookie is hyped AND has a good fractional campaign, they are still an unproven commodity and can be drafted at a significant discount. (Think Howard, Hamilton, and Longoria the year directly after they were called up.)
Spring Training Numbers –
Most fantasy experts don’t place too much stock in a spring training numbers. There are a few exceptions though, if a pitcher is coming off of an injury it is very encouraging to see those a low era and a healthy command of that pitchers go to pitch. In a hitters case a question mark might move up a couple of priority spots on your drafts list if he something special like, oh, I don’ know lets say lead the majors in home runs during spring training. (Ryan Howard led the majors in homers the year before his break out year.
Injury –
This one can go either way. Perhaps a hot prospect has finally gotten over come an injury that has hampered them during their career. A player that has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that they have a natural gift. Take for instance Alex Gordon, deep down inside some where is a born winner who should be making the major market team wring their fingers in anticipation for a his contract year. Year after year though injury and the residual aches and pains that remain long after the club house doctor has cleared your to play have effectively put the kibosh on his major league hopes. A player like that can easily live up to his potential if can get fully healthy.
In a time period marked by prolonged recession in the U.S. economy and a parallel recession in Fantasy depth at third base, Alex Gordon might be the recession special you might want to look at.
Johnny Gomes on the other hand was a call up who showed his power during his break out year through spring training and into April of the following season. It is now well known that a shoulder problem derailed the rest of that season and every multiple attempts at a come back. Be Careful! Major League Baseball managers are notorious for keeping injuries top secret and lying to the media about the overall health of their players. Sometimes a local newspaper will have the inside scoop on players injuries so check the websites of local players and for cases where you suspect a surreptitious injury ‘cover up’ check the MLB rumor sites.
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Minor League Numbers – This one is a no brainier. If someone is having a major break out season, go back and see if that hitter has a minor league track record to match. There are right now plenty of minor league hitters who post up at least semi impressive numbers on the Bull Durham circuit.
This Years Question Marks
Nelson Cruz – This Texas slugger has shown tremendous promise in the minor league system and will probably still a number of question marks surrounding him. He hits much better in Arlington than elsewhere (.286 BA at home) He hit 33 home runs in just over 450 Abs and has a track record of torrential power in the minor leagues. He is very for real and this is the last year you will be able to get any type of discount on him. His minor league average indicates that he’s capable of way more than the BA of .260 he sported lat year.
Ben Zobrist – He’s probably on everyone’s radar this year after that incredible break into the majors campaign last year. Keep in mind he hit more home runs last year than he did in his entire minor league career. A red flag indicating rookie season fluke. Zobrist will will be paid for dearly due to his position scarcity. His steal potential is probably not for real considering that the only time he stole as many bases as he did in his major league season is nearly four years ago in the minor leagues. If you look at the guys pre/post all star split his power number came down to earth in the second half. What you can count on Zobrist for is sporting a squeaky clean batting average, his career average in the minors is well above three hundred, but in fantasy baseball you aren’t drafting any one for just their batting average unless its Joe Mauer. You certain o over pay for Zobrist for avoid him.
Garrett Jones – In terms of fantasy baseball I feel in love with Garrett Jones last year, his half season was incredible allowing me to off load the scorching Derrek Lee for value. I am the type of sucker to go after Garrett Jones again even though a lot of the indicators of pointing to a fluke are present. He is one of those life long journey men in the minor leagues, who according to baseball wise man logic should had been called to the big show a long time ago if he had an ounce of major league worth. Don’t be fooled by his stat line, he is an atrocious hitter for averaging who once hit a dreadful .202 in a full minor league season. (The following year he sported a not much better .220 BA) The good news with Jones is that he did what he did for slightly less than half a season, which means most fantasy novices didn’t take note of him. His power is very real, but don’t expect another .290 campaign. If you can get him at the tail end of the draft do it, If it comes down to your third closer or Jones, your third string closer is probably more of a guarantee.
Don’t Stretch, I probably will this year cause, shucks, I like the kid but take this as a warning. [Update 3/11, Three run homer off of Sabathia, keep your eye on the kid during spring training.]
Chris Coghlan – There wasn’t anything ridiculously eye popping about Chris Coglhan’s statline at the end of the season last year, and we have seen people in recent years win the rookie of the year much more convincingly. Nevertheless the wasn’t rushed through the minors too fast nor did he flounder there on a quest to find himself. His .328 average was quite impressive and steaks of play indicate that there might be more than meets the eye as far as power is concerned. He might be a late round pick but he’s no gamble, Coghlan is a solid start or fill in at a very scarce position. He’s in Florida which is an exiting young team with a robust farm system. He isn’t going to win you your league, but he’ a nice answer to the often asked question. “What do I do for second base?” Just avoid him if your league is willing to pay for that “rookie of the year
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