Being in a fantasy draft in the New York market is unlike being in a fantasy draft in any other market. Fandom runs deep, generations deep and Met and Yankee players get snagged by fantasy geeks, on average, almost a full round too early. And although other cities might have this issue, the New York market is particularly notorious for allow team colors to cloud a drafter's judgement. Last year someone in my league drafted almost the entire Mets pitching roster. Needless to say he came in last. Dead last.
Last year was particularly painful for Mets fans, with a combination of a Madoff swindling and a myriad of injuries. Most fans would rather watch a DVD of the 1986 World Series than tune in. Fortunately for fantasy players it doesn't matter if said players' team makes the play offs. All that matters a players individual stat line. As fantasy fanatics we can be very opportunistic about the Mets struggles and like those crafty real estate speculators taking full advantage of this crash, you can come in with the speed of a concord and make lemonade of the situation.
The problem is that no one knows if this is the bottom of the housing market or not and no one really knows if this is the end of the Mets' troubles or just the beginning.
Plenty of Value -
Wright, Beltran, Reyes, and Santana are all bonafide baseball superstars who at one point or another in the last four years have ALL worn the "fantasy first rounder" tag with pride. Some of the fallen stars in question are only a year removed from their first round glory.
Lets assess the risk from high risk / high reward through reasonable risk and finally low risk steady return.
High Risk High Reward –
Carlos Beltran in the last few years has been a nice sneaky pick in the top rounds to get 25/25/100/100 and bat on the fringe of .300 while doing it. Now, since the Mets need to sell tickets to corporate big wigs in sky boxes the official word is that Beltran just needs to ‘clean up’ his knee, a knee that is no stranger to the operating table.
Beltran is expected back as ‘no earlier than late April.’ You might as well tell Mets fans to act as if the slugger is not coming back this season. Mets fans root cautiously with a heavy heart are probably going to avoid him for as long a possible. In some mocks he sits there like the last kid picked in a pick up game as late as the 13th round begging “pick me pick me!”
If the most optimistic hopes are indeed correct, he could play close to a full season. Some are saying he isn’t going to try to steal due to the knee operations. But in the half season he did play last year, he did hit ten home runs and steal ten bases. Project that over a full season of play and you have a 20/20 guy with a 300 batting average.
You just can’t beat that in the middle teen rounds and sometimes in the late teen rounds. Imagine trading your #2 outfielder after and after Beltran hits his stride in June and getting a #2 starter in return. Depending on the degree of difficultly of your league, this might prove easier said than done but there a pretty sweet possibility here.
In the 16th round would you rather have Alex Rios or a Carlos Beltran that’s out for a month. Or a sliding Johnny Damon. Beltran or a average decimating Dan Uggla. Beltran or the ever lasting under achiever Adrian Beltre. It’s a very high risk pick but the value the risk is priced in.
Moderate Risk –
Jose Reyes, who built his fantasy reputation on the expectation that he should give you at least 50 steals in the bank. But the curse of the old Shea’ seems to be wreaking havoc on the Mets. Always the first rounder, Reyes’ value should take a hit since the Hamstring problem makes it hard to count on stolen bases. Although you should monitor how long he will be out, if he slips any later than the 5th round start throwing him into your player cue. Considering the dearth of talent at short stop this year, having ‘Jose Jose Jose’ filling the gap in that position could bless you with a huge fantasy windfall.
Jose Reyes, if healthy, should still get you 300.+/15/100/100/25
Moderate Risk –
S.A.N.T.A.N.A
There has been a lot of coverage of Johan Santana’s shoulder problems. Rumors have been flying around the internet that the management office in Minnesota knew that something was wrong with his shoulder before the sent him out to market.
That’s the dark side of Johan, however the upside is very real looking to smack the naysayers in the face. Johan’s numbers in 2009 are still pretty solid. Stellar if you believe that he put up a low 3 ERA battling a shoulder problem. Does that mean that a recovered Johan is capable if pitching a full season?
As the magic 8 ball once said “the answer is uncertain.” But Johan is a competitor, and he is a winner in the big leagues. If it had not been for the emergence of a new breed of super pitcher (Greinke, Lincicum) who are sporting mid two ERAs Johan’s name would still be amongst baseballs best.
Now with a strong spring it brings his name out of the mid sixth round and you would probably have to spring for him in the 5th. I go for him any later than the middle of the 5th round.
Remember that the new stadium is VERY pitcher friendly, a deliberate move by the Mets to save them expenses on pitching costs.
Low Risk
David Wright was once a first rounder and out of the crop of fallen angels David Wright remains the closest to that upper tier. The “power outage” at Shea remains a little bit discouraging, but the reason that experts were penciling in Wright as a first rounder in the 2009 season were two fold. Fantasy analysts after all did know that the new stadium was going to be a “pitchers park.”
A) They didn’t know exactly how bad the 'Citi Field effect' was going to be.
B) The believed that Wright, much like Soriano in his first year with the Nats, would be able to display power DESPITE the new field.
No one however expected it to be as low as ten home runs.
Wright however remained solid in every other statistical category and I can’t buy the projections for 15 homers he’s just too good.
Think of the Mets as that video store in your neighborhood video store with the “lost our lease” sign on it where you can get your 3 favorite movies for under $10 in total.
Its time to start browsing the bargain bin.
-Johnny Utah
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